Comments on: Unemployment Equilibrium: Keynesianism 103 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2011/09/unemployment-equilibrium-keynesianism-103/ Informed reflection on the events of the day Wed, 15 Jul 2015 17:00:00 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.4.23 By: Michael Corey http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2011/09/unemployment-equilibrium-keynesianism-103/comment-page-1/#comment-16739 Wed, 14 Sep 2011 13:31:00 +0000 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/?p=7675#comment-16739 Putting measures in place to help bring about a “full/fuller” employment economy will do more to help the life chances of everyone over longer periods of time. Temporary fixes are seductive, in my opinion, and distract us from addressing the bigger issues. There are only a limited amount of resources available to accomplish what needs to be done; therefore they need to be used judiciously. There are numerous things that the Federal government is responsible for; are not being done; and; could create worthwhile jobs for a broad spectrum of people.

They all involve science and technology. Going from the grandest to the mundane, they include things like: engineering and putting in place a planetary defense system to protect the Earth against probable asteroids strikes; engineering and putting in place a electromagnetic pulse defense system to prevent the destruction of the infrastructure that is the basis for all of our economic and social systems; designing and putting in place a deep water port system which will be needed to sustain imports an exports and be secure; participating in cross state programs to deal with the effects of long term drought and thereby protecting our food production system; putting in place a cyber security system to protect the systems which are the basis for virtually all knowledge and transaction systems; etc. We could keep peeling the onion back and examining worthwhile things that affect the viability of the country; and then establish priorities based upon our abilities to get them done. Each institution (state, local, public and private) needs to seek out and select the best opportunities they have to make a difference.

As for Perry’s claim, I’m not sure what he said; and I don’t really know how many jobs have actually been created. I doubt that anyone really does. The raw aggregate numbers period to period taken as a whole are very worrisome.

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By: IrisDr http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2011/09/unemployment-equilibrium-keynesianism-103/comment-page-1/#comment-16725 Wed, 14 Sep 2011 03:19:00 +0000 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/?p=7675#comment-16725 Schools need repairs, and could be done quickly. Teachers need to be in the classroom. We need police and firefighters. Tax loopholes need plugging, and in time, real tax reform needs to happen. You sound like you’re with Perry who says not one job was created with stimulus money.

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By: Michael Corey http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2011/09/unemployment-equilibrium-keynesianism-103/comment-page-1/#comment-16713 Tue, 13 Sep 2011 19:56:00 +0000 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/?p=7675#comment-16713 There is a significant difference between addressing causes and effects. Much of what is coming out of Washington is temporarily addressing effects. These moves probably will not yield the desired results. In my view, one of the major problems we face from a policy making standpoint is not adequately identifying root causes. There is a much better chance of correcting long term issues that are hurting us today why engaging them. There is a huge difference between proposing programs supported by visions, values and compelling reasons; and offering up projects which frequently fall short of what they are intended to do.

The biggest part of the projects offered are the infrastructures spending and the continued suspension of the payroll taxes which fund Social Security, a program which its auditors say already has serious actuarial shortfalls. My guess is that many of the infrastructure spending projects will take much longer than expected to initiate; and a rush to do them may fund may be suboptimal. An alternative approach on infrastructure spending would be to identify infrastructure spending that yields the most value to the economy and the functioning of the nation. I’m not at all sure that the best ones will be chosen.

Some of the other proposals will have little or no effect. Businesses will not hire people because there is a small, short-term tax incentive. When additional people need to be hired, most employers look for the people they think will do the best job for them. All others things being equal, then they might be influenced to hire veterans or the long term unemployed.

To deal with veteran unemployment and the long term unemployed begs correctly identifying the reasons. I haven’t studied the situation, but I have a few guesses. Veteran unemployment may have to do with relatively few people serving in the military, and being out of the workforce for awhile. Couple this with the high incidence of PTSD, and we are starting to approach root causes: deploying people who serve less often, finding more ways for people to serve, and training people while in the military for post military careers.

It is difficult to deal with the long term unemployed without helping bring back manufacturing to the United States. The loss of manufacturing jobs for decades has destroyed the life chances of millions of people. This means we need to incent manufacturing to be done here and trade opportunities need to be opened up. This means helping fast track business expansions. It also means using the valuable resources we have in a responsible way. Whole communities, for instance, in the Northwest have been destroyed when the Forest Service has withheld public lands from sustainable forestry. Many of the same problems exist with our energy resources, depletable and renewable.

Unemployment among minorities in inner cities is far too hard and has created a devastated underclass. This is an intractable problem, but it is worth exploring tax incented redevelopment, enterprise zones with trade preferences. The most humane thing that we can do is deal with structural issues and strive for full employment in my opinion. We need to take advantage of our strengths.

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By: IrisDr http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2011/09/unemployment-equilibrium-keynesianism-103/comment-page-1/#comment-16685 Mon, 12 Sep 2011 18:48:00 +0000 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/?p=7675#comment-16685 No one is saying that the economy will all of sudden grow substantially with the kind of Keynesian proposals Obama is making. But certainly everyone should see the benefit of hiring more teachers, policemen and firemen as well as giving unemployed construction workers something constructive to do. Those people likely otherwise would be a drain on government and not be paying taxes, nor have money to spend on goods and services that businesses want to supply. Large corporations might be hedging their bets on the long term, but community businesses need customers for their goods and services. Not only are students better off having the attention of their teacher, but their teacher might decide to make household improvements and hire a local carpenter. The local hardware store might not have to go out of business, etc. Same goes for the construction worker. Not only does the community benefit from better infrastructure, but the workers now have buying power in their local communities. Bridges are having to close due to cracks, http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20110909/NEWS01/309090090/Sherman-Minton-Bridge-closed?odyssey=tab|mostpopular|text|FRONTPAGE and others have fallen while in use. These investments should be no-brainers. All this nay-saying that “it won’t do this and it won’t do that” is missing what it would mean to those people who would not otherwise be employed, and the benefits that their employment would have on our communities, while at least keeping our economy from sliding further.

I have not heard any Republican economic proposals (that Obama has not also proposed) that would not further increase the income disparity in this country, which is very destructive, or take us back to the environment that got our economy into this mess in the first place.

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By: Anonymous http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2011/09/unemployment-equilibrium-keynesianism-103/comment-page-1/#comment-16533 Fri, 09 Sep 2011 22:39:00 +0000 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/?p=7675#comment-16533 This is the perfect piece for the moment and, as Jeff notes, for use in evaluating Obama’s speech. There is an encouraging op-ed in the NYTimes by Krugman as well. I think that Obama’s speech was tremendous. Now what we need is follow through— he needs to really put the pressure on Republicans to focus on unemployment and not let up on that pressure. Maybe even name names—- I, like many liberals, are energized by the presentation but reluctant to get too excited ….

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By: Michael Corey http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2011/09/unemployment-equilibrium-keynesianism-103/comment-page-1/#comment-16514 Fri, 09 Sep 2011 17:22:00 +0000 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/?p=7675#comment-16514 Will raises the issue as to why do businesses reduce investment spending? In the practical world of running businesses, there are numerous short-term and longer- term factors. Operating decisions are heavily influenced by short-term factors such as: lack of sufficient demand and the cost and availability of human, material, energy resources. Investments are longer-term commitments that are based upon whether or not the value of the businesses will be adequately enhanced above investment objectives as measured by changes in net present values and through discounted cash flows. Small, short-term, temporary incentives do not lead to large, long-term investments that are major drivers of economic growth and more jobs.

Cash flow projections take into account the length of time it takes to get things done. Regulatory and other roadblocks extend payouts, reduce returns and reduce the number of projects that can be financed. All cash flows are on an after tax basis. If effective tax rates are not competitive, then the other revenue and cost factors must be exceptional to carry them. This is one reason why uncompetitive tax rates have led to increased investments outside of the United States. The resultant cash flows outside of the United States infrequently come back to the United States due to the high tax costs of bringing them back.

Uncertainty raises the hurdle rates for longer-term investments. Higher risks require higher rewards. Uncertainty in most the elements used to construct projected cash flows is causing most businesses to hibernate.

In the short-term, most businesses can use existing workforces and unused capacity to deal with short-term increases in demand that is viewed as temporary in nature. This is one of the reasons why governmental stimulus rarely yields the desired effect. Creating more sustainable jobs requires businesses to make longer-term investment commitments.

Longer-term business investments require commitments from investors and bankers. If projected after-tax returns are inadequate in one country, then investors will try to find adequate returns in others. If paying dividends is no longer an efficient way to reward investors, then dividend payouts may be reduced in favor of things that enhance the value of the business. Businesses may use this cash to invest in themselves through investments such as acquisitions and share buybacks.

I really don’t think that most policy proposals take into account how businesses work.

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By: Jeffrey C. Goldfarb http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2011/09/unemployment-equilibrium-keynesianism-103/comment-page-1/#comment-16491 Fri, 09 Sep 2011 11:15:00 +0000 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/?p=7675#comment-16491 This piece explains the fundamentals of our economic situation and suggested the way the President’s speech should be evaluated. Using these fundamentals as a guide, it is clear that Obama’s speech, and more significantly his economic strategy, are on the mark. This was good economics and also good politics. I think the power of his presentation changes the political landscape.

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